What would have happened if… (COVID) | 1

“For the want of a nail the shoe was lost,

For the want of a shoe the horse was lost,

For the want of a horse the rider was lost,

For the want of a rider the battle was lost,

For the want of a battle the kingdom was lost,

And all for the want of a horseshoe-nail.”

― Benjamin Franklin

1706-1790

According to the World Health Organization the origen of  the actual pandemic was caused probably either by bats or pangolins, who passed it to human beings.

It really is amazing that something so small and insignificant can have such tremendous consecuences. This does remind one of the well known butterfly effect, which is the idea that small things can have non-linear impacts on a complex system. The concept is imagined with a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a typhoon.

We probably will never know where this pangolin (just let’s imagine it’s a pangolin) caught the virus, but let’s just imagine….

This is our pangolin. Cute, isn’t he?

We’ll go back in time to november 2019, to Huanan.

Pangolins are quite solitary nocturnal animals, Their large and elongated claws enable them to burrow underground for shelter and to excavate ant and termite nests for food, mixing and aerating the soil.

Over one million pangolins are thought to have been taken from the wild in recent years to supply the soaring demand for their flesh, scales, and fetuses. Pangolins are now the most illegally traded mammal on the planet

At some point our pangolin was infected, and at some point he was caught and probably sold, probably at some market in Huanan…

Now let’s just imagine that our pangolin managed to escape. He may have taken another route, or maybe the human hunter had some kind of delay for whatever reason and instead of catching the infected pangolin he caught some other poor animal, or none at all…

So, at this day the 17th of november 2019 the virus never came to the Huanan (Wuhan) market, the first person to be infected was a 55 year old Wuhan citizen, in our story he just bought another pangolin and never got infected.

This just makes one wonder how often have we just narrowly escaped other disasters.

… to be continued …

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